Bloomberg Intelligence (Bloomberg Intelligence) senior macro strategist Mike McGlone warned in his latest commentary that Bitcoin is rapidly losing its status as an independent "digital gold" and is being reduced to an ordinary stock market "marionette." He believes that Bitcoin's rigid correlation with the U.S. stock market, combined with the Federal Reserve's inevitable tightening policy, has created a critical downside signal for this leading crypto asset, whose price could fall to multi-year lows.
Bloomberg Intelligence's analysis points out that three major pressure factors have now triggered bearish signals on the chart:
- Technical ceiling: The rebound stalled at $76,746, failing to break through the key psychological threshold of $80,000.
- Interest rate factor: One-year federal funds futures (FF13-FF1) have already priced in expectations of another 70 basis points of Fed rate hikes, which is draining liquidity from speculative markets.
- Wall Street overheating: The S&P 500 has deviated severely from its 200-week moving average, and the risk of large-scale profit-taking by institutional investors is rising sharply.
Bitcoin Is Too Dependent on the Stock Market, and That Is Not Good News
McGlone's statement is very clear: Bitcoin no longer functions as a defensive asset. Over the past five years, its return has merely matched that of the S&P 500, while exposing investors to nearly three times the volatility.
From the perspective of portfolio analysis, this is an inefficient trade that undermines Bitcoin's status as a "safe-haven asset." Dilution within the industry itself has further worsened the situation: Bitcoin was born in 2009 as a unique instrument, but today it is dragged down by millions of newly emerging altcoins, forced to carry a higher beta, and ultimately bound its trajectory to tech stocks.
Its close relationship with Wall Street makes the crypto market vulnerable to systemic shocks. According to McGlone's estimates, if the S&P 500 enters a natural correction phase and falls 20%, Bitcoin will inevitably drop toward its long-term fundamental pivot level—around $10,000.
This scenario could only be invalidated if Bitcoin proves its independence and can still rise against the trend when the stock market falls. For now, however, macroeconomic indicators point in precisely the opposite direction.
