This article was compiled and organized by BlockWeeks
Bitcoin fell a cumulative approximately 15% between January 28 (Monday) and January 31 (Saturday), with the decline clearly amplifying over the weekend. On Saturday alone, there was a single-day swing of about 10%, triggering one of the largest liquidation events in crypto history: Bitcoin long liquidations across major futures trading platforms exceeded $2 billion.
On Coinbase, BTCUSD dipped as low as $75,644 on Saturday, up to 10% below the average cost basis of approximately $84,000 for U.S. Bitcoin ETFs. Intraday, the price also briefly broke below Strategy's average holding cost of $76,037 and approached the near-one-year low of $74,420—a low that occurred during the "tariff panic" in April 2025. Currently, about 46% of the Bitcoin supply is underwater (i.e., these coins last moved on-chain at a higher price). With January closing in the red on the monthly chart, Bitcoin recorded its first four consecutive monthly declines since 2018.
A 40% Drawdown Has Never "Stopped Short"
Historically, except for 2017, Bitcoin has never experienced a 40% drawdown from its all-time high that did not expand to more than 50% within three months. If we calculate a 50% drawdown from today's all-time high, BTC would fall to about $63,000. In addition, there is a clear vacuum in on-chain cost basis between $82,000 and $70,000, which may increase the likelihood that Bitcoin will continue to probe lower in the short term and test demand in that range. The current Realized Price is about $56,000, and the 200-week moving average is about $58,000—as long as BTCUSD remains above them, both metrics will slowly move higher each day.
Whales and Long-Term Holders Have Not Yet Aggressively Accumulated
There is still no evidence of significant accumulation by whales or long-term holders, although profit-taking by long-term holders has begun to slow markedly. At the same time, bullish catalysts are hard to find, and the narrative level is also working against Bitcoin: under the market's dominant theme of the "currency debasement hedge trade," gold and silver have strengthened collectively, while Bitcoin has failed to rise in tandem. Although the passage of crypto market structure legislation (the "CLARITY Act") could constitute a short-term exogenous catalyst, its probability of passage has declined in recent weeks; even if the legislation brings positive momentum, the beneficiaries are more likely to be altcoins rather than BTC.
Key Levels: 50-Week Moving Average Lost, 200-Week Moving Average and Realized Price Form the Next Support
In the past three bull markets (2013/14, 2017/18, 2019 and 2021), the 50-week moving average was a key support; once it was lost, price ultimately returned to the 200-week moving average. Bitcoin fell below the 50-week moving average in November 2025, and the 200-week moving average is currently around $58,000. The Realized Price measures the average cost of on-chain Bitcoin at the time it last moved, and is currently around $56,000. Historically, Bitcoin has often fallen below the Realized Price at bear market bottoms, but it usually finds support near or slightly below that level and rebounds higher. On a linear chart from 2018 to the present, the Realized Price and the 200-week moving average have converged in the upper-middle $50,000 range.
Based on the above reasons, BTC may oscillate near a -10% discount to the historical maximum ETF cost basis (currently about $76,000), but there is also a considerable probability that it will gradually probe down to the lower edge of the supply vacuum range ($70,000) and test the Realized Price ($56,000) and the 200-week moving average ($58,000) over the coming weeks to months; however, the longer this drags on, the higher the corresponding prices will be as these two metrics move up. Historically, these levels have often marked cycle bottoms and have also been strong entry points for long-term investors.
ETF Cost Basis Breached for the First Time
U.S. Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024, opening market access to a new group of investors. After Grayscale won its case in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit in August 2023, expectations for ETF listing drove a broad recovery in Bitcoin's price. As of the week ending January 30, 2026, cumulative net inflows into U.S. Bitcoin ETFs reached $54 billion; cumulative inflows peaked at $62.2 billion in early October 2025 and are currently down 12.4% from the peak. Notably, with spot Bitcoin down nearly 40% from its high, ETF holders have still shown extremely strong resilience.
But the past two weeks were the 2nd-worst and 3rd-worst single weeks in Bitcoin ETF history, with combined net outflows of $2.8 billion. The price action on January 30 and 31 caused BTCUSD to fall below the average ETF cost basis calculated from inflow-period prices ($84,000) for the first time since the summer of 2024. As of publication, BTC is 7.3% below that basis, and at one point on Saturday it was 10% below intraday. The last time it fell below this level was in late summer and early autumn of 2024, when the maximum discount reached 9.9%. This level is expected to provide support in the short term.
From the perspective of the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD), there is a clear holding gap in the $70,000 to $80,000 range; the chart shows that about 194,000 BTC last traded between $77,000 and $79,500, and the vast majority of that changed hands within the last two days.
The "Debasement Hedge" Narrative Has Recently Failed
Since the fourth quarter of 2025, Bitcoin's sustained underperformance relative to gold, silver and other metals has been widely reported by financial media. Macro and geopolitical uncertainty brought about by tariffs and the reshaping of the world order, combined with market doubts about the state of global sovereign debt, pushed capital into commodities and commodity currencies. In such an environment, Bitcoin's non-sovereign currency attributes and permissionless transfer capability should have been advantages, but the reality is that Bitcoin fell while traditional safe-haven assets surged. Bitcoin's weak performance in a macro environment in which it should have benefited has damaged its narrative and diverted market focus to other assets.
Long-Term Holder Selling Pressure Has Clearly Weakened
In 2024 and 2025, long-term holders' dollar-denominated profit-taking exceeded any period in Bitcoin's history, with an average of $500 million sold per day in 2025. This distribution has finally slowed, but there may still be long-term holders waiting to sell at higher prices, and future selling will create resistance to upside moves. Nevertheless, the recent decline in realized profit-taking by long-term holders is noteworthy and should be viewed as a signal that the market is approaching a bottom. Looking back at the linear trend from 2021 to the present, long-term holder selling creates headwinds for upside, while market bottoms often coincide with a reduction in this kind of profit-taking.
As of publication, Bitcoin is down 38% from its all-time high of $126,296 on October 6, 2025, the first time since early 2024 that it has fallen below that previous high level. The research team previously said at the end of last year that 2026 was "too chaotic" to give a clear year-end Bitcoin price forecast; and in the 45 days since then, the investment environment has only become more chaotic.
